HPS³ - Davide Morisi - Follow the issue, not the leader: Vote switching after referendums

This event takes place in English.

The Hamburg Political Science Seminar Series (HPS³) features international speakers presenting cutting-edge research in empirical political science and political economy.

We welcome on Thursday May 08, 2025 - 17:15-18:45 CET in VMP9 S28

Davide Morisi (University of Southern Denmark)

Title: Follow the issue, not the leader: Vote switching after referendums

Abstract: 

How do voters reconcile conflicts between their issue preferences and their favorite parties’ positions? I address this question by focusing on referendums as instances where some voters experience conflicts between their positions on a referendum proposal and their favorite party’s position. Using cross-sectional and panel data related to six referendums that took place in Denmark, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK between 2015 and 2018, the findings show that, in each consultation, a sizeable share of those who cast a referendum vote against party recommendations “follow the is-sue”, switching to a party that is in line with their issue positions. Vote switching is consistent with a spatial model of issue voting and persists over time in highly salient consultations. Further experimental evidence confirms the causal link between issue-based considerations and voting. These findings have relevant implications for theories of voting, elite influence and for how direct-democratic means of decision making impact democratic representation.

The HPS³ seminars take place in person at the UHH. Please find the preliminary program on the HPS³ Website.

We invite everyone interested to attend the HPS Seminar Series and are looking forward to seeing you.